In 2020, Devin Williams took the league by storm. En route to posting a 0.33 ERA, Williams struck out 53% of batters he faced earning himself a spot in rookie of the year conversations. Fueling his rapid ascent was his screwball-like changeup, but how can we analyze what makes it elite? Plenty has been written... Continue Reading →

Tyler Glasnow is a damn good starting pitcher. Glasnow's always had that label. His talents were plenty evident during his time in the Pirates' farm system, but once Tampa Bay worked their magic on the tall righty, he turned into the second coming of Jacob deGrom. He's one head of the Rays' Cerberus of starting... Continue Reading →

In my last article, I built a model to predict the performance of every single at-bat to help with making bullpen decisions. As a reminder, I used a random-effects model with the random variables being times through the order and platoon matchup and the fixed effects being pitcher and hitter wOBAs. I decided I wanted... Continue Reading →

The professional baseball landscape is ever-changing, and over the past few years it has emphasized the importance of player development. This has been well documented in books like The MVP Machine. As a result, teams are looking for different ways to create competitive advantages in this department to maximize player performance. One such area where... Continue Reading →

Primer Since the Colorado Rockies played their first game in 1993, the organization has never put forth a team ERA under four (sporting a home ERA of over six the last three seasons). While the organization has put together formidable lineups for multiple years, the magic touch on the hill has eluded them. Many attribute... Continue Reading →

Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. He once again put up a ridiculous slashline in 2020 - .281/.390/.603 - although it was somewhat disappointing considering what he has done over the past half decade. He may be high on the list, but it is safe to say he will not defend his American... Continue Reading →

Earlier this summer, I informally introduced a pitch quality metric called Expected Run Value (xRV). This was in a piece for South Side Hit Pen, Sports Illustrated’s White Sox site. The article analyzed two unsung heroes of Chicago’s bullpen, Evan Marshall and Jimmy Cordero, as measured by various metrics including xRV. The basis of xRV... Continue Reading →

What if I told you slash lines of .147/.253/.365, and .237/.343/.455 weren't all that different? Everyone would prefer to have the hitter with the second one right? If you are a rational decision maker the answer to that question should most definitely be yes. The first one is Gary Sanchez's 2020 season, and the second... Continue Reading →

In 1995, thanks to a quintet of dominant starting pitchers, Atlanta secured their third World Series championship. Their staff, fronted by three future Hall-of-Famers, combined for a 3.24 ERA. In the mid-2010's, the Braves' ownership opted for a new wave of front-office executives. The new hires decided to replicate the success of their predecessor by... Continue Reading →

Baseball is all about matchups. It is called the most individual team sport for a reason, as pitchers and hitters are all alone to compete against one another. Those matchups create scoring, either by the batter winning multiple in a row, or getting the most out of it and putting a ball into the seats.... Continue Reading →

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBWXCSU4nHQ I am usually not one to make bold claims, but Kimbrel had a spectacular September. He may have only pitched 7.1 innings scoreless innings, but it was how he pitched those innings that gives them significance. He dominated striking out 13 batters and walking none. You can fake a good ERA for 7.1 innings... Continue Reading →

Primer Sixto Sanchez has taken the baseball world by storm.  The twenty-two year old right hander has been as dominant as a rookie can, having blanked the likes of the Braves and Rays already in two of his four career starts. Sixto’s K/BB ratio is otherworldly (29/5 in 32 IP); with fantastic sequencing, and a... Continue Reading →

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oSpYKGOswc Luis Castillo's slider has averaged 0.0 inches of horizontal movement in 2020. This video breaks down why that number can be a little misleading. It can also be found on Johnny Asel's YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnvnQkFJpR5WubOr-xplBsQ

Baseball has clearly had technological and analytical improvements over the last few decades. Pitching and hitting advancements have led the way, and defense has lagged behind. In the much more recent past, more accurate defensive metrics have been created, and the older ones have been updated. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and... Continue Reading →

Last offseason, Tom Tango and the geniuses over Baseball Savant created Statcast Swing Take, a metric that computes a player's production by analyzing his contributions in different zones of the plate. This metric helps determine how much value a player contributes to his team's offense by swinging or taking at a certain pitch. Simply put,... Continue Reading →