Moving Forward with “Win Score”

If you are unfamiliar with the term “Win Score” please check out the: Introducing “Win Score” article. The equation for Win Score as stated in that article is:

Win Score = [(League average runs-(ERA+FIP)/2)*5 + .75(innings) + .5(strikeouts)]/Games Pitched.

The point of Win Score is to replace the current “win” statistic as it is outdated and based on so much outside of the pitchers’ control. In this article I look to further simplify Win Score and look at how the top 15 pitchers this year rank.

Using Jacob deGrom as exhibit A to kill the “win” stat, there are 23 starting pitchers with more wins than his 2. Even so, you would be laughed at if you tried to make an argument than any one of them is having a better year than deGrom. Not surprisingly, deGrom ends up at #1 by a good margin in my Win Score rankings.

To give a sense of how to read Win Score valuations. I also created the Win Score Percentage. which puts each players’ Win Score and divides it by the top pitcher’s Win Score. For example, the top pitcher with be divided by his own total, so will read 100%.

The rankings by Win Score Percentage are:

You may notice that the MLB Wins leader (Jack Flaherty) is not on this list, and he actually ranks 30th at 8.1 (or 55%). His score is hurt by his ERA and FIP being relatively high compared to those in this top 15. The top and 3rd ranked pitchers (deGrom and Burnes) both have .500 records at (2-2) this year, but clearly record does not do them justice based on their production.

Here are each of the top 5 Win Score leaders pitches (3 most thrown pitches for each pitcher) using BallR:

#1 (Jacob deGrom) (Fastball, Slider, Changeup)

#2 (Gerrit Cole) (Fastball, Slider, Curveball)

#3 (Corbin Burnes) (Cutter, Sinker, Changeup)

#4 (Shane Bieber) (Fastball, Curveball, Slider)

#5 (Tyler Glasnow) (Fastball, Slider, Curveball)

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